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00:21 - REGNUM Revival of the military aviation industry

2014 was a record year for the Russian Air Force - pilots received 108 different aircraft at their disposal. In 2015, the pace of deliveries should remain at about the same level or slightly increase. In total, taking into account exports, at least 124 military aircraft were built. The number of helicopters produced is growing more slowly, in 2013 and 2014 approximately 300 helicopters were produced each. As for civil aircraft construction, the results here are noticeably more modest - 43 aircraft were produced, of which 38 aircraft were delivered to customers, and the rest will be delivered in 2015.

Is it a lot or a little? For this, it is necessary to dwell in more detail on each category of aviation products.

Military aircraft construction

In 2014, the Russian Air Force received 24 Su-35S multi-role fighters, 21 Su-30SM multi-role fighters, 8 Su-30M2 fighters, 18 Su-34 front-line bombers, 10 Mig-29K/KUB carrier-based fighters, 20 Yak-130 combat training aircraft , surveillance aircraft Tu-214ON, four passenger aircraft An-148-100E, two cargo-passenger aircraft An-140-100. All of these aircraft meet modern requirements, many of them (especially the Su-30) are a huge success abroad. As already mentioned, the total number of military aircraft produced was at least 124 pieces (the number of aircraft delivered abroad could not be accurately determined, so the number could be more - up to 150). Let's compare this figure with the number of combat aircraft produced in the 80s of the USSR, when the aviation industry was really strong. From 1983 to 1990, an average of 175 aircraft were produced each year, of which 110 were military. That is, the result achieved in 2014 is fully consistent with Soviet production rates, and this despite the fact that each new model of an aircraft (especially a military one) costs much more than the previous one and takes more time to build.

And one more interesting point - today the Russian Federation began to take first place in the world in the production of combat aircraft, overtaking both China (using Russian engines on its aircraft) and the United States (no more than 100 aircraft in 2014). The United States is being let down by the development of the 5th generation F-35 fighter, which is not going as smoothly as we would like. According to preliminary information, over the next 5 years, the US will produce 569 aircraft - 113 per year, along with export aircraft.

As for the prospects of the Russian Federation, in two years fighters of the 5th generation PAK FA will go into mass production. Within the framework of the State Armament Program for 2011-2020, the rate of production of aircraft should remain approximately at the same level as in 2014. Work has begun on the creation of a promising strategic bomber PAK DA and a military transport aircraft PAK TA.

Another important direction in the development of the Air Force is the modernization of the existing fleet. Already in 2015, 5 upgraded Tu-160 and 9 Tu-22M3M strategic bombers will be received. These aircraft can now carry high-precision non-nuclear cruise and anti-ship missiles. By 2020, the Russian Air Force should have at least 700 modernized aircraft (while maintaining the pace taken).

Civil aircraft construction

Things are not so rosy here. The main passenger aircraft of domestic production is the short-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100. It was produced in the amount of 34 pieces. With a stretch, transport aircraft purchased by law enforcement agencies can also be attributed to civil aviation - another 9 An-148, An-140, Il-76 and Tu-214. A total of 43 cars. In the 80s, 60-70 civil aircraft were produced in the USSR every year. But then there was the production of wide-body aircraft, the same Il-86/96. Now the model range is limited to only one single SSJ-100, the prospects for which on the market are not yet entirely clear. The MS-21, a medium-haul aircraft from the UAC, is under development. There was information about the possible development of a wide-body aircraft project jointly with China. In any case, we are still very far from Europeans and Americans - the world market is still almost completely divided between two giants - Airbus and Boeing. In 2013, the former delivered 626 aircraft, and the latter 648. The annual production of our UAC aircraft is only 6.8% of the Airbus output.

Helicopters

Let's get back to the positive. In 2014, the Russian Helicopters holding produced a little over 300 aircraft, of which more than 100 were produced under the State Defense Order. In the USSR of the 80s, the production of helicopters was approximately 380 pieces per year - a larger figure, but not dramatically, especially considering the reduction of the country itself and the production of more expensive and modern machines. In addition, there is the production of a certain number of rotorcraft outside of Russian Helicopters - up to 50 more helicopters per year. In world sales, Russian Helicopters accounts for 14%. The line of the legendary Mi-8/17 is especially popular, which even the Pentagon still buys for the Afghan army. The production of attack helicopters Ka-52, Mi-28 and Mi-35 is more than 70 pieces per year - the first place in the world.

findings

1. We are witnessing the revival of the Russian military aviation industry. Not only have Soviet production rates been achieved, but even the United States has been left behind.

2. Although the civil aviation industry began to revive (a few years ago there was no production of 20 aircraft a year), it is still negligible on a global scale. The model range is extremely scarce and does not meet the needs of the Russian Federation. The main development prospect is cooperation with China, which will allow us to get a huge Asian market.

3. In the helicopter industry, progress is very good. At the same time, it is worth noting that even in the worst years, the production of helicopters rarely fell below 100 units per year. The Mi-8/17 line has always been popular abroad.

The aviation industry as an industry was formed in the early twentieth century. By 1910-12, in many countries there were several enterprises involved in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the time of world wars, in particular, the Second World War, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued to grow rapidly, during this period, paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several leading countries of the aviation industry have formed in this sector, holding their positions.

Modern leaders - what are their features

Currently, the world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several states, including: the USA, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have the largest number of factories and plants operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them eventually go to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.

The peculiarities of the leading companies in the leading countries of the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing major carriers, national flights, and if we are talking about military aviation, it is meeting the needs of the armed forces.

Leading companies in the civil aviation industry

Civil aircraft industry is the most costly group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization of the national or international level.

In the civil aircraft industry today, two large corporations are leading:

• Boeing (American company);
• Airbus (United Corporation of the EU);
• United Aviation Corporation of Russia.

There are no enterprises of similar scale in other countries. A key feature of these companies is the dispersal of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach allows you to sharpen production at one plant for the production of one part, drag factories to resources and, therefore, minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of the giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises "Su", "Mig", "Il", "Tu", "Yak", focused on general production.

Other major aviation companies in the world are: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).

China is most likely to become one of the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world's giants.

Military aviation

In the military sector, the leaders of the aviation industry look different. The following brands fall into this category:

• Su (made in Russia);
• Mig (Russia);
• Panavia Tornado (Germany);
• Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
• Boeing (combined US production).

In this sector, it is rather difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that in this sector the top three remain unchanged: the US, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest amount.

• Boeing's forecast for the next 20 years reflects a 3.5 percent increase in aircraft demand compared to 2014
• Narrow-body and small/medium wide-body aircraft markets lead growth in terms of number and total value of aircraft

Boeing forecasts a need for 38,050 new aircraft over the next 20 years, up 3.5 percent from last year's forecast. The company today released its Current Market Outlook, estimating the total cost of new aircraft needed at $5.6 trillion.

"The commercial aircraft market continues to be strong and stable," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. In the future, we expect further market growth and strong demand for new aircraft.”

By the end of the forecast period, the civil aircraft fleet will double, from 21,600 in 2014 to 43,560 in 2034. Growth will be driven by 58 percent of the 38,050 aircraft delivered during the period. Passenger traffic growth will continue and will be about 4.9 percent annually, almost reaching the historical trend of 5 percent. Over 7 billion passengers will be transported by the end of the forecast period. Cargo air transportation will increase annually by approximately 4.7 percent.

The single-aisle aircraft market continues to lead the growth rate and, as the largest segment, will require 26,730 aircraft over the next two decades. These aircraft are the backbone of the world's airline fleet, carrying up to 75 percent of passengers on more than 70 percent of civil aviation routes. The growth of this segment is due to the growth of low-cost airlines and traditional airlines in emerging markets.

“The Boeing 737-800 and the upcoming 737 MAX 8 are at the forefront of the narrow-body aircraft segment,” said Tinseth. “These aircraft provide customers with the highest fuel efficiency, regularity and performance in the class.”

About 35 percent of narrow-body aircraft will be operated by low-cost airlines, Thinset added: “Low-cost airlines will need aircraft that combine the highest cost-effectiveness with the highest potential for profit. With a 20 percent reduction in fuel consumption, the 737 MAX 200 will be the ideal aircraft for them.”

Boeing forecasts that the wide-body segment of the market will require 8,830 new aircraft. First of all, small wide-body vessels with a passenger capacity of 200 to 300 seats, such as 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliner, will be in demand. This year's forecast continues to reflect a shift in demand away from very large aircraft towards economical new twin-engine aircraft such as the 787 and the new 777X.

While most of the demand for new aircraft is still driven by the growth of airlines, replacements will require a large number of aging aircraft, which are constantly growing. Every year, 2 to 3 percent of the operated fleet will need to be renewed.

“The 737 MAX, 777 and 787 are in the perfect position to take advantage of this wave of replacements,” says Tinseth.

The cargo market continues to strengthen and will require around 920 new aircraft over the 20 years that the forecast covers.

“We have seen a strong growth in the air cargo market over the past two years and we expect this market to continue to grow,” said Tinseth. “This is great news for our production of cargo aircraft, including the 767, 777 and 747-8.”

Boeing's annual market forecasts have the longest history and are the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report is available at www.boeing.com/cmo.

Deliveries of new aircraft: 2015-2034

In the next two decades, the Asian market, including China, will lead in terms of total shipments.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly emerged in the production of mainline passenger liners (i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 people or more and a maximum flight range of more than 4,000–5,000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (in Russia, aircraft of the same dimension are produced - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is of a single nature for state needs). The same concentration occurred in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4,000 km): by the beginning of the 2000s, there were only two companies producing such aircraft in a truly mass-produced manner - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia and in Ukraine there is, or rather, a small-scale production of an aircraft of this class An-148 vegetates). It was in the regional segment that the countries that wanted to enter the narrow circle of manufacturers of jet passenger aircraft first illuminated themselves: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet. But the long-haul aircraft market is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. projects in this segment (similar to the Boeing 737 and A319/320/321) were announced by three more players: Russia with the MS-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft of the COMAC company and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in terms of passenger capacity " from below" to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.

Giants Predictions

Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation market - few in the industry present such long-term forecasts to the public. At the same time, the demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of airliners. Forecasts are made on the basis of thorough and long-term marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee such events that once hit the market hard, like the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States or the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. As follows from the latest (published in autumn 2014) Boeing forecast, by 2033 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. The cost of aircraft that will be produced before 2033 will amount to a mind-boggling figure of $5.2 trillion (nearly a third of US GDP or about three times Russia's GDP in 2014). Of the 25,680 aircraft produced over the forecast twenty years, i.e., almost 70%, according to the Boeing classification, they will be “long-haul aircraft with a single aisle” (Boeing 737, A320, MS-21 and C919), and in value terms their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will be produced in 2490 pieces, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $100 billion. America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, will amount to 1330 aircraft worth $150 billion by 2033 (or 3% of the entire world market). MC-21 type aircraft in the former USSR will require 990, and regional airliners - 160.

Why "Tu" and "Il" disappeared

In the best years, the Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jets per year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154s, six Il-86s, one Il-96, two Tu-204s and 13 Yak-42s were produced, that is, a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, there were processes of consolidation of the aviation industry (as a result of which only Boeing remained in the United States instead of three aircraft manufacturers), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or allocated to state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aviation industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: a severe economic crisis, a lack of new projects, a lack of modern maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, a large excess fleet formed due to the collapse of air travel, which was actually free for airlines machines. Beginning in 2001, the state began to look for forms of industry consolidation, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, a difficult process of integration "from below" was going on, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from the sale of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that these two companies put forward projects for new civil aircraft - the Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 for the creation of a regional aircraft, and the MS-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither the Tu-204, of which about 80 units were produced in total, neither the IL-96 (more than 20) never became truly serial due to the lack of introduction in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the Il-96 also because of the four-engine, less economical than Western competitors, scheme. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idly by on the Russian market during the 2000s. occupied a dominant position on it as the mass decommissioning of Soviet aircraft. No less important is the issue of international cooperation. The European EADS in the mid-2000s was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of a 10% stake in Irkut, and the Russian bank VTB bought a 5% stake in EADS on the market. However, decisive steps towards partnership did not follow - for various, including political, reasons.

Airbus' 20-year forecast, released at the Le Bourget air show in June, is not radically different from Boeing's forecast, but is more moderate. Sales through 2034 will be $4.9 trillion, the total number of new aircraft produced is 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing), the number of cars with a single pass for passengers is 22,927, and in terms of cost - 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus forecasts demand for ultra-large aircraft (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) at 1,550, while Boeing believes only 620 will find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type - the A380 - is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of a machine of this dimension in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia now, and in 20 years only the Moscow air hub will represent them), namely, the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.

Share for Sukhoi Superjet

Canadian Bombardier's forecast published last year focuses on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033 the demand for liners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will be 7100 units, or $ 465 billion in monetary terms. Embraer, in its forecast published at Le Bourget, expects delivery by 2034 of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.

Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for the Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft (37 units produced) that unfolded last year led to the fact that it took about 10% of the total sales of jet regional airliners.

View from Russia

A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to the company's forecasts, for the period 2015-2034. the capacity of the market for cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will be 2600 units, and the share of SSJ will be 14%, i.e. 364 units.

However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, which, like the Chinese C919, is aimed at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will be brought to the market as early as 2016-2017. its new modifications Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MS-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned for 2016 (the Sukhoi Superjet has from the first test flight to the first commercial took about four years).

Oleg Panteleev, executive director of the Aviaport agency, believes that the feasibility of plans to sell new types of Russian aircraft is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of the assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and the Russian aviation industry does not control this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation. Thirdly, the possibility of advancing to the world market - this issue is also not controlled by the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look manageable.

The global civil aircraft market is 90% “captured” by the American company Boeing and the European manufacturer Airbus. However, it seems that the hegemony of these companies will soon come to an end. Who is able to oust these titans? Which companies and countries are going to get involved in the fight?

The civil aviation market is a global growth market without national borders and at the same time is characterized by fierce competition from national manufacturers. Difficult technological challenges and high costs mean that only a small number of countries and a few large companies operate in the aircraft industry. Thus, in the market of aircraft manufacturers, competition is oligopolistic in nature, i.e. dominated by a few large international companies that have the strongest influence on the entire market.

The leaders of the civil aviation industry in recent decades have been Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EC), occupying more than 90% of the global passenger aircraft market, but the technological development of the industry and the emerging demand patterns in the coming years will lead to the destruction of the already familiar duopoly of Western aircraft manufacturing giants. In this paper, we deliberately do not include in the analysis the plight of the domestic aviation industry, which was the subject of another article by the author (Tolkachev S.A. The new look of the domestic aviation industry / / Capital of the Country, 09/01/2010.), in order to consider in its purest form the hard the world market of civil airliners, where Russia has a place in the backyard after the inglorious surrender of positions (in fact, as in the First World War) as a result of the collapse of the USSR and the socialist bloc in 1989-1991. One of the forms of indemnity for the alleged “defeat” of the USSR in the Cold War with the West was the surrender to the “winners” of the gigantic civil aircraft market, estimated at that time at 40% of the world. As it will become clear from the further presentation, only on this “democratic” Russia, as the successor of the USSR, has lost at least 1 trillion rubles in 20 years. dollars (!) or the total cost of oil exports for the same period. Therefore, to seriously approach the analysis of the world market for airliners with the participation of fragments of the mighty Soviet aviation industry, which today is timidly knocking on the door either with unfinished late Soviet developments (Tu-204, Tu-334, An-148), or with generic Western models (Sukhoi Superjet 100, MS-21), just do not want to.

1. The main segments of the civil airliner market

All civil aircraft produced in the world intended for the mass transportation of passengers are divided into the following segments depending on the type of fuselage and flight range:

1) medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is from 5 to 6 meters. Aircraft with two aisles between the seats in the cabin. There are usually 7 to 10 passenger seats in a row. For comparison, narrow-body aircraft usually have a fuselage diameter of 3-4 meters. In the passenger cabin of a wide-body aircraft, the seats are arranged in 3-5 rows. On average, a wide-body aircraft can take on board 300-500 people.

The following wide-body aircraft are currently in operation (Table 1):

Table 1. Major wide-body aircraft in service.

2) medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft:

The fuselage diameter is up to 4 meters. Compared to wide-body aircraft, narrow-body aircraft take on a much smaller number of passengers and, as a rule, have a shorter flight range. The maximum passenger capacity is 289 people.

Narrow-body aircraft in particular include (Table 2):

• Airbus A320 is the most massive European passenger jet aircraft.
• The Boeing 737 is the most massive passenger jet in the world.
• IL-62 is a narrow-body aircraft with the longest flight range.
• Tu-154 - the most massive Soviet passenger jet aircraft,

Table 2. Major narrow-body aircraft in service.

3) regional jets:

Regional aircraft include even smaller aircraft. They carry up to 100 passengers over distances of up to 2-3 thousand kilometers. These aircraft can be equipped with both turboprop and turbojet engines. These aircraft include aircraft of the ERJ, CRJ, ATR, Dash-8 and SAAB families (Table 3).

Table 3. Main types of regional aircraft in service.

4) local planes:

The smallest class of passenger aircraft are local aircraft designed to carry a small number of passengers (from 20) over distances of up to 1000 kilometers. They are most often equipped with turboprop or piston engines. The most common aircraft of this class are produced by Cessna and Beechcraft.

For a better understanding, we present a comparative table 4, which includes all segments of civil airliners.

Table 4. Segments of the passenger aircraft market and their predicted capacity (in kind and value) for the period 2005-2024

2. The main companies participating in the civil airliner market

The passenger aircraft market has historically been dominated by American and European manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus are the largest civil aircraft manufacturers in the world.

Airbus S.A.S. (pronounced Airbus) - one of the largest aircraft manufacturing companies, produces passenger, cargo and military transport aircraft of the same name. The company headquarters is located in Toulouse, France. In 2001, according to French law, it was merged into a joint-stock company or "S.A.S." (French Société par Actions Simplifiée - simplified joint stock company). Airbus' sole shareholder is EADS. Airbus employs about 50 thousand people and is concentrated mainly in four European countries: France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain. The final assembly of products is carried out at the company's factories in the cities of Toulouse (France) and Hamburg (Germany).

Airbus' civil aircraft lineup began with the twin-engine A300. A shortened version of the A300 is known as the A310. Building on the lack of success of the A300, Airbus began developing the A320 project with an innovative fly-by-wire control system. The A320 was a big commercial success for the company. The A318 and A319 are shortened versions of the A320 offered by Airbus for the corporate jet market (AirbusCorporateJet) with some modifications. A stretched version of the A320 is known as the A321 and competes with later Boeing 737s.

Inspired by the success of the A320 family, Airbus decided to develop a family of even larger airliners. This is how the twin-engine A330 and the four-engine A340 were born. One of the key features of the new aircraft is the new wing design, which has a large relative thickness, which increases its structural efficiency and internal fuel volumes. The Airbus A340-500 has a range of 16,700 kilometers, the second longest-range commercial jet after the Boeing 777-200LR (17,446 km).

The company is particularly proud of its own fly-by-wire technology, unified cockpit and on-board systems used in all aircraft families of its own design; they make crew training and retraining to new models much easier.

The latest development of the company A350XWB is designed to compete with Boeing's new model - 787.

The Boeing Company- one of the world's largest manufacturers of aviation, space and military equipment.

The headquarters is located in Chicago (Illinois, USA).

The main production facilities of the company are located in the cities of Everett (Washington), California, St. Louis (Missouri).

The company produces a wide range of civil and military aviation equipment, being, along with Airbus, the largest aircraft manufacturer in the world. In addition, Boeing produces a wide range of military aerospace equipment (including helicopters), conducts large-scale space programs (for example, the CST-100 spacecraft).

The company's factories are located in 67 countries around the world. The company supplies its products to 145 countries of the world. Boeing works with more than 5,200 suppliers in 100 countries.

In 2001, a division of Boeing International was formed, which controls the company's work in 70 countries of the world, except for the US market, where it is responsible for the development and implementation of the company's global development strategy. It determines and evaluates the competitive advantages and opportunities in the host country for the development of intellectual resources and technologies, the development of partnerships and business.

3. Comparative characteristics of the release of Airbus and Boeing

The companies operate mainly in the segments of narrow-body and wide-body short- and medium-haul aircraft.

Below is a comparative description of the release of certain aircraft models by year.

• ? B-737 and A320. Medium-capacity aircraft for medium-haul airlines, each type has many modifications. In recent years, A320s have been sold in larger volumes than Boeing products.

Table 5. Deliveries of AirbusA320 and Boeing 737 for 1988-2010

• B-747 and A380. Large capacity aircraft for medium and long haul airlines. Asian airlines, traditional users of the 747, are the main customers of the A380. Currently, B-747s are produced in quantities of no more than 10 units per year, there are very few new orders for passenger cars (out of 99 B-747s ordered since the beginning of 2006, only 27 are passenger ones). At the same time, the A380 order book has increased by 60 passenger liners since the beginning of 2006.
• B-767 and A330. The Airbus aircraft has proved commercially more successful in recent years.

Table 6. Deliveries of Airbus A330 and Boeing 767 aircraft in 1994-2009

• B-777 and A340. Both aircraft appeared at the same time, but due to the greater fuel efficiency of the B-777 and a number of other factors, the American company sold twice as many aircraft as their European competitors.

Table 7. Deliveries of Airbus A340 and Boeing 777 for 1993-2009

There are very few new orders for the A340. It is assumed that the A350 will compete with the B-777, but the development of the latter is still very far from complete.

Embraer (Empresa Brasileirade Aeronautica) is a Brazilian aircraft manufacturing company, one of the leaders in the global market for passenger regional aircraft. Headquartered in Sao José dos Campos, State of Sao Paulo.

Founded in 1969 as a government controlled company. In the 1990s, it faced a serious crisis, after which it was completely privatized in 1994 (the state had only a “golden share”, which gives it the right to veto in matters of supply of military aircraft).

The company specializes in regional liners and produces commercial, corporate, military, agricultural aircraft. Production facilities are concentrated in Brazil.

By 2010, the company shared third or fourth place with the Canadian Bombardier among the largest suppliers of commercial airliners, behind Boeing and Airbus. In 2009, the company delivered more than 240 aircraft to commercial customers.

The number of personnel is 17 thousand people (2005).

Embraer Jet - a family of twin-engine narrow-body medium-range passenger aircraft manufactured by the Brazilian company Embraer. Includes 4 modifications: E-170, E-175, E-190 and E-195. The E-Jet was first presented at the Le Bourget Air Show in 1999. Serial production began in 2002.

Table 8. Deliveries of Embraer E-jet 190, 195 aircraft in total for 2005-2010, pcs.

bombardier inc. (Bombardier), a Canadian engineering company. The headquarters is located in Montreal, Quebec.

The company was founded in Valcourt (Quebec) in 1942 under the name L´Auto-NeigeBombardierLimitée by Joseph-Armand Bombardier. The company has been engaged in aircraft construction since the mid-1980s. In 2003, the company sold its snowmobile, all-terrain vehicle, jet ski, powerboat division to Bombardier Recreational Products, concentrating on rail and aircraft engineering.

The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of business jets, regional aircraft, as well as railway equipment and trams. The main divisions of the company are the world's largest manufacturer of railway equipment Bombardier Transportation and Bombardier Aerospace, the world's third largest manufacturer of civil aircraft after Boeing and Airbus. In 2008, Bombardier employed 59.8 thousand people.

Bombardier Canadair RegionalJet (CRJ) is a family of regional passenger jet narrow-body aircraft. The aircraft made its first flight on May 10, 1991. The CRJ-100 became the first aircraft of the modern level among the 50-seat aircraft. In terms of speed, the aircraft can be compared with larger machines, while its efficiency is quite consistent with the class. The family consists of several modifications that differ in fuselage length and flight range: CRJ100, CRJ 200, CRJ 700, CRJ 900.

The CRJ 900 model is designed to carry 88 passengers. The Bombardier CRJ 900 made its first flight on February 21, 2001. In addition to the standard, there are several more versions of the aircraft - elongated and for long-distance flights.

The Bombardier CRJ 1000 program was launched by Bombardier Aerospace on February 19, 2007. First flown in September 2008, the 100-seat CRJ1000 is the latest model in the Canadian Regional Jet family.

Table 9. Deliveries of Bombardier CRJ 900, 1000 aircraft in 2005-2010, pcs.

4. Growth forecasts for the global civil airliner market

According to Airbus forecasts, in the next 20 years, airlines around the world will buy almost 25,000 new long-haul aircraft for a total of 2.9 trillion. dollars. Of these, about 10,000 will be required to replace the aging fleet, and another 15,000 will be needed to further increase the carrying capacity. Moreover, narrow-body airliners will be in the greatest demand. They will be sold about 18 thousand for 1.27 trillion. dollars, which will be 70% of the total volume of all deliveries in physical terms. As a result, by 2030 the global airline fleet will almost double and exceed 30,000 aircraft. High demand for new aircraft is driven by the growing need to replace airliners with low fuel efficiency, as well as the dynamic development of new markets and the growth of passenger traffic on existing routes.

Boeing predicts that the new civil aircraft market will be worth $3.6 trillion over the next 20 years. dollars Market growth will be accompanied by the recovery of the global economy after the crisis and an increase in demand for new and more efficient aircraft. According to the current 2011 market review, by 2029 the market capacity will be 30,900 new passenger and cargo aircraft.

Table 10. Future market value (at 2009 prices) and aircraft deliveries by region by 2029

The table shows that in the long term, the volume of passenger traffic will increase by 5.3% per year under the influence of economic growth in regions with different patterns of demand for aircraft. The fastest growing segment of the global market will continue to be narrow-body aircraft, thanks to the explosion of low-cost airlines, the development of new markets such as India, China and Southeast Asia, and continued volatility in fuel prices. The growth rate of the narrow-body aircraft segment has outpaced the wide-body segment over the past ten years. This gap will continue to widen as older aircraft are phased out of the airline fleet.

The highest growth rates are observed in the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the undisputed leader.

Today, this region provides about 1/3 of the world's air traffic. As a result of the growth of this market, by 2029 the Asia-Pacific region will account for almost 43% of inbound, outbound and domestic traffic. China alone will need 4,300 new airliners over the next 20 years.

Local airlines will also be the most active buyers of wide-body aircraft, generating about 40% of total demand.

Another dynamic market is the Middle East, which has seen one of the highest air traffic growth rates in recent years. Middle Eastern airlines have achieved rapid growth by taking advantage of their geographic location, the region's demographics, the acquisition of modern aircraft, and well-thought-out investment and business development plans. To the Middle East for the period 2011-2029. 2340 aircraft will be delivered.

The following table provides more detailed data on the distribution of deliveries of different types of airliners by major regions.

Table 11. Aircraft Deliveries by Region by Size, 2011-2029

5. Increasing competition and the end of the duopoly

Airbus and Boeing's portfolio of firm orders for narrow-body aircraft is now approaching 3,000 units, which is only 16% of the forecast demand for these liners over a twenty-year period. Thus, there are all the prerequisites for the emergence of at least one more major player on the global long-haul aircraft market, which, under certain circumstances, may well push the giants of the world aircraft industry. The duopoly is slowly coming to an end. Of all the aircraft manufacturers in the world, the challenge to the "Big Two" - Airbus and Boeing - was the first to be thrown by Canadians. Five years ago, Bombardier decided to start developing the C-Series narrow-body aircraft, designed to carry 110-130 passengers. Initially, the implementation of this project was hampered by the intractability of aircraft engine manufacturers, who, according to some experts, being under pressure from Airbus and Boeing, did not show a desire to create new engine modifications specifically for the new Bombardier aircraft. They motivated their decision by the narrowness of the sales market. But thanks to the efforts of the Canadian authorities and the position of Pratt & Whitney Canada, as well as the changing market situation, this problem was eventually resolved. Having received financial support from the province of Quebec, Pratt & Whitney nevertheless developed a new family of Pure Power engines. These are exactly the units that Irkut will use on its MS-21. But unlike the MS-21 program, the C-Series project has already gone more than half way. In the middle of last year, Bombardier presented working drawings of the SC100 test aircraft, and the final design of the left fuselage skin was shown at the Saint-Laurent plant in Montreal. Now at this enterprise, the installation of composite panels on the tail section of the liner is already in full swing.

The new aircraft should take to the air in 2012, and the first deliveries of the liner to airlines are scheduled for 2013. But, despite all the advantages of the new liners, Bombardier still cannot boast of a large portfolio of orders for them: Canadians have only 90 firm contracts for the purchase of the SC100 and the same number of options. The main customers of these aircraft are the Lufthansa Group, the Irish leasing company LCI and the American Republic Holdings. But Bombardier pins its main hopes on the Chinese market. According to the forecasts of the Canadian company, within the next 20 years it will become the second largest market for commercial aviation. To achieve this goal, the company decided to cooperate with Chinese aircraft manufacturing enterprises.

China has its own project for the creation of a mainline narrow-body aircraft - C919. And this project is nothing but China's long-term plan to destroy the Airbus and Boeing duopoly. The name of the model and its digital code for the Chinese have a great symbolic meaning. The first number "9" can be interpreted as "a long time to overcome a difficult path", and "19" means that the first Chinese long-haul aircraft will be able to carry 190 passengers. In addition to the basic version, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has begun designing two more models - for 156 and 168 passengers.

Within a few months, COMAC expects to complete the overall technical design of the aircraft and select suppliers of all key systems. This process has been actively going on for the last year and a half.

COMAC plans that the first flight of the C919 should take place in 2014, and the commercial operation of the liner will begin in 2016. In total, the Chinese intend to produce 2,500 new aircraft within 20 years. True, COMAC has not yet paid firm orders for the C919. But there is no doubt that they will appear in the near future.

The expansion of three new manufacturers of long-haul aircraft to the market at once forced Airbus and Boeing to begin full-scale preparations to repel the attack. Airbus has decided to launch a remotorization program for the A320 family, which, after being equipped with new engines, will be called NEO. The European concern intends to invest about 1 billion euros in this project. It is planned to install all the same engines of the LEAP-X and PurePower families on new aircraft. Moreover, Airbus is going to equip its modernized airliners with new wingtips, which will further reduce fuel consumption by 3-4%. Thus, the total fuel savings will be about 18%. The design of the A320 NEO airframe is 95% similar to the currently operated aircraft of this family. The European concern will have to strengthen only the wing and pylons. The remotorized aircraft will hit the market as early as 2016 and will cost just $6 million more than their predecessors. In total, Airbus is going to sell about 4,000 A320 NEOs. And it is not excluded that this plan will be fulfilled sooner or later. In a month and a half of sales, Airbus has already acquired three major customers. The launch customer for the A320 NEO was Virgin America, which signed a contract for the purchase of 30 aircraft. India's IndiGo and Malaysia's AirAsia soon followed suit with tentative agreements to purchase more than 200 new aircraft. This sent EADS (the parent company of Airbus) shares up 5% on the day. The company's management is confident that the residual value of the existing A320 models will not suffer much, but the newly minted competitors of the European concern will have a hard time.

Boeing considered the launch of the NEO project a belated response to its Next Generation family of aircraft, which have been in production for more than a decade. At the same time, Boeing intends to create a new family of aircraft in the near future to replace the existing versions of the Boeing 737 NG. The company understands Airbus' expectations from the release of the new NEO model, but does not see the need for such liners, the company's strategy, in accordance with the expectations of its customers, is aimed at designing a new aircraft.

The Brazilian Embraer is also considering the possibility of creating a new mainline aircraft for 110-130 passengers. The company is waiting for Boeing to make a final decision on the release of its new airliner, and even then it will consider whether they should take on a competing project.
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The modern aviation industry is a global network of thousands of specialized suppliers of various components and manufacturing services located around the world, incl. and in Russia.

The current state of the aviation industry market is characterized by a stage of stabilization. It is characterized by an established mature market for the products of the relevant industry. This means that the aviation industry market is segmented:

• medium and long-haul wide-body aircraft;
• medium and long-haul narrow-body aircraft;
• regional jets;
• local planes.

An important feature of the state of the civil airliner market today is the continuous increase in the role of innovation to achieve success: a change in the situation in the external environment requires a review of the role and place of innovation in the activities of companies. An analysis of the development trend of the world market in the 20th century revealed the main feature: the development of the market is a continuous increase in volatility, instability and unpredictability.

The basis of the development strategies of the world's leading civil aircraft manufacturers is the continuous technological improvement of their products and the reduction of operating costs of the proposed aircraft models, including fuel consumption and repair and maintenance costs, as well as the development of deep and long-term relationships with airlines by providing them with comprehensive support in operation. , modernization and renewal of the aircraft fleet. At the present stage, the range of products manufactured by Boeing and Airbus, as well as Embraer and Bombardier, is largely similar when compared in terms of such characteristics as the size, range and cost of the aircraft.